Weekly Wrap Up April 14, 2026
Recapping Last Week
• Equity Markets: U.S. stocks rallied for a second straight week after a U.S.–Iran two week ceasefire.
• Nasdaq Composite +4.7%
• Russell 2000 +4.0%
• S&P 500 +3.6%
• Geopolitics & Energy: Ceasefire remains fragile amid Israel’s continued attacks in Lebanon and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• WTI crude fell over 14% to $96.17 after topping $117 earlier.
• Brent crude also plunged, boosting emerging market equities nearly 8%.
• Sector Performance: Energy was the only losing U.S. sector.
• Technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary led gains.
• Semiconductors surged 13%+ to record highs.
• Software fell 7% after Anthropic delayed an AI model over security concerns.
• Inflation & Economy: March CPI showed early inflation effects from the Iran war.
• Headline CPI: +0.9% MoM, +3.3% YoY (highest in two years).
• Gasoline drove nearly three quarters of the increase.
• Core CPI rose 2.6% YoY, indicating limited spillover beyond energy.
• Rates & Policy:
• Short- and intermediate-term Treasury yields were flat.
• Long-term yields rose after weak demand at the 30-year auction.
• FOMC minutes suggested some policymakers may favor rate hikes to curb inflation.
• Consumer & Business Sentiment:
• U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a record low of 47.6.
• One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% from 3.8%.
• Services growth slowed; prices paid and delivery times hit multi-year highs.
• Growth Outlook:
• Q4 2025 GDP revised down to 0.5% growth.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates Q1 2026 growth at 1.3%.
• Official Q1 GDP release expected April 30.
• Global Developments:
• OPEC+ agreed to a modest May production increase.
• China’s producer prices rose for the first time in over three years; CPI eased to 1% YoY.
• Eurozone investor confidence dropped to a one-year low amid recession fears and rising energy costs.
The Week Ahead
• Geopolitics: Iran demanded the release of frozen foreign assets and a ceasefire in Lebanon before peace talks, raising doubts about U.S.–Iran negotiations planned in Pakistan.
• Middle East Tensions: Despite Israel signaling openness to talks, strikes between Israel and Lebanon continued, keeping markets unsettled.
• Market Drivers: With a light economic data calendar, geopolitical developments and oil prices are expected to dominate market sentiment.
• Earnings Season: First quarter earnings kick off, with investors focused on how the war is affecting business outlooks.
• Major U.S. banks reporting
• Key tech names: ASML, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Netflix
• U.S. Economic Data: Producer prices, existing home sales, industrial production, and regional manufacturing surveys.
• Fed Watch: Numerous appearances by FOMC members throughout the week.
• International Data:
• China reports Q1 GDP, industrial production, and retail sales (likely not yet reflecting full war impacts).
• IMF bi annual meetings held in Washington amid global economic uncertainty.
• Australia employment report and UK GDP update also due.
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