Weekly Wrap Up February 23, 2026.
Recapping Last Week
Market Performance
• U.S. equities rose:
o Nasdaq +1.5%, S&P 500 +1%, Russell 2000 +0.6%.
• Sector performance mixed: gains in financials, communications, industrials; weakness in staples, materials, healthcare.
Corporate & Industry News
• Private equity stocks fell after Blue Owl Capital sold $1.4B in assets and froze redemptions, raising concerns about lenders’ exposure—especially to software companies.
• Walmart shares declined following a cautious earnings outlook.
Commodities & Rates
• Gold inched higher; silver surged 9% to $84.25.
• Treasury yields rose following mixed economic data.
Economic Data (U.S.)
• Q4 2025 GDP (first estimate): +1.4%, sharply lower than Q3’s 4.4%.
o Weakness driven by reduced consumer spending, exports, and the government shutdown.
• Core PCE (Dec): +0.4% MoM, +3.0% YoY, hotter than expected.
• FOMC minutes: first recent mention of possible rate hikes if inflation stays high; policymakers divided.
o Market assigns just over 50% probability of a June rate cut.
• S&P Global Flash Composite PMI: slipped to 52.3 from 53.0 as new orders and employment stalled.
• Consumer sentiment (Feb final): 56.6, slightly lower than earlier estimate; 1-year inflation expectations at 3.4%.
• U.S. trade deficit (Dec) widened; 2025 goods deficit hit a record high despite elevated tariffs.
• Pending home sales (Jan): fell to a record low, even with declining mortgage rates and slower price growth.
International Developments
• Europe: Business activity exceeded expectations.
o Germany’s flash composite PMI rose to 53.1; manufacturing surpassed 50 (expansion) for first time since June 2022.
• UK:
o Inflation slowed to 3.0% YoY in January.
o Softening employment and wage growth increased likelihood of a March rate cut.
The Week Ahead
Market & Policy Focus
• Light U.S. economic calendar gives investors more time to assess the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling.
• Key uncertainties:
o Whether the government must refund past tariff revenue.
o Total refund amount and timing of potential repayments.
o How the U.S. will replace future tariff revenue that might have supported debt servicing.
• Potential market impact:
o Bond prices may fall, pushing long term Treasury yields higher amid concerns over U.S. fiscal stability.
o Sectors exposed to international revenue and raw material/component costs may see volatility.
Corporate Earnings
• Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close:
o Expected ~70% YoY growth in revenue and earnings.
o Investor focus: gross margins and forward guidance.
• Home Depot also releases earnings this week.
U.S. Economic Data
• Key reports:
o Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday — a hot reading could dampen rate cut expectations.
o Consumer confidence and factory orders also due.
• Multiple FOMC member speeches throughout the week may offer commentary on inflation, tariffs, and policy direction.
International Data
• Notable releases include inflation readings from Germany, Japan, and Australia.
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