Weekly Wrap Up March 17, 2026
Recapping Last Week
Market & Geopolitical Backdrop
• Middle East conflict escalations raised fears of the largest potential oil supply disruption in history.
• Oil prices were extremely volatile: surged to $119.50, plunged below $77, then rebounded to ~$99; ended the week +8%.
• The International Energy Agency announced its largest-ever release of 400 million barrels.
Equity Markets
• U.S. indices fell for the week:
o S&P 500: –1.5%
o Nasdaq Composite: –1.5%
o Russell 2000: –2%
• Volatility spiked: VIX 35, ending near 27 (implying ~1.7% daily S&P 500 moves).
• 9 of 11 sectors declined.
• Financials were the worst performing (–3%) due to private credit concerns.
o JPMorgan marked down collateral loan values, reducing borrowing capacity for private credit firms.
Other Assets
• Gold: –3%
• Silver: –5%
• Bitcoin: +4%, showing some decoupling from equities.
• Treasury yields surged, driven by inflation fears from energy prices.
• Weak demand at 3- and 10-year auctions and a record $66B corporate debt issuance weighed on bonds.
U.S. Economic Data
• CPI (Feb): +0.3% MoM (higher than previous).
• Core PCE (Jan): +0.4% MoM, +3.1% YoY.
o Both showed rising inflation pressures before the war.
• Q4 2025 GDP revised down to 0.7% from 1.4%.
• Final sales to private domestic purchasers lowered to 1.9% from 2.4%.
• Consumer sentiment: 55.5 (down from 56.6); half of responses came post war outbreak.
• 1 year inflation expectations steady at 3.4%.
• Housing starts & existing home sales rose as affordability improved and multifamily building surged.
International Developments
• Major global equity indices fell ~2%, pressured by USD strength and higher energy prices.
• China:
o Consumer inflation rose at the fastest pace in 3 years.
o Producer price deflation eased.
o New GDP growth target set to 4.5–5%—lowest since early 1990s.
o Trade surplus hit record high with exports up 21.8% YoY (Jan–Feb).
The Week Ahead
Geopolitics & Energy
• Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, threatening a major global trade and energy chokepoint.
• A small number of ships, including an Indian oil tanker, moved through on Friday, but flows remain severely constrained.
• Despite efforts such as:
o the IEA’s major emergency release, and
o the U.S. allowing countries to buy stranded Russian oil for 30 days,
experts believe the situation is untenable without a ceasefire or
de-escalation.
• Prolonged disruptions may require additional inventory releases, which would be difficult to get to market.
Central Banks & Monetary Policy
• Six major central bank decisions are on deck this week.
• Federal Reserve (U.S.):
o Expected to hold rates steady amid higher inflation risk and softening labor trends.
o Will release updated Summary of Economic Projections midweek.
o Fed futures imply 50% chance of a rate cut before October.
• Other central bank meetings:
o Australia, Canada, Japan earlier in the week.
o UK and European Central Bank on Thursday.
o All are expected to maintain current rates, though markets will scrutinize any hawkish tone shifts.
U.S. Economic & Corporate Calendar
• Key data releases:
o Housing market data
o Producer Price Index (PPI)
o Regional manufacturing surveys
• Micron Technology reports earnings on Wednesday after the close.
International Economic Data
• Major global releases include:
o China’s monthly economic data dump
o German economic sentiment (ZEW)
o Canadian CPI
o UK employment figures
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