Weekly Wrap Up March 3, 2026.
Recapping Last Week
U.S. Markets & Sectors
• Major U.S. indices fell: Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down ~1%, S&P 500 down 0.5%.
• Sector performance slightly positive overall but dragged down by financials and technology.
• Nvidia’s strong Q4 results and upbeat outlook failed to lift markets; stock fell 6.5%, pressuring the broader semiconductor sector.
• Software stocks declined further due to new AI tools released by Anthropic.
Commodities & Bonds
• Gold futures rose 3%; silver surged over 11% to $94.40.
• U.S. Treasury yields continued falling; 10 year dipped below 4% for first time in three months.
• Defensive investor positioning increased amid trade uncertainty and AI related concerns.
U.S. Economic Data
• Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% MoM in January, hinting at potential inflation acceleration.
• Service sector margins jumped, implying tariff related cost pass through to consumers.
• Rare earth metal shortages pushed costs higher for aerospace and semiconductor firms.
• U.S. consumer confidence edged up to 91.2 from 89.0 in February.
Geopolitics & Trade
• China’s dominance in rare earths expected to be a key topic in the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting in Beijing.
International Markets
• Crude oil up 1.5% on expectations OPEC+ may raise output in April.
• Japan: appointment of pro stimulus central bank board members weakened the yen and pushed the Nikkei 225 to new record highs; soft inflation may influence BOJ’s rate plans.
• Australia: CPI increased more than expected to 3.4% YoY in January, raising odds of another rate hike.
• Germany: consumer inflation eased to 2% on lower energy costs and a strong euro.
• Canada: Q4 2025 GDP unexpectedly contracted 0.6% as firms relied on existing inventories; exports rose 1.5% despite weaker U.S. trade.
The Week Ahead
Market & Geopolitical Backdrop
• Oil and gas prices are jumping as U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran expands across the Middle East.
• Energy production is being affected by the air campaign, adding inflation risk.
• Interest rates and the U.S. dollar rose to start the week on renewed inflation concerns.
• Ongoing AI disruption and shifting trade policy continue to cloud the investment outlook.
• Bank stocks weakened after a UK mortgage lender collapsed, raising concerns about lending standards and financial stability.
Monetary Policy & Rates
• Expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 have been reduced.
• Labor market data this week carries added weight ahead of the March 18 Fed rate decision.
U.S. Economic Data to Watch
• Employment:
o ADP private payrolls and Challenger job cuts data arrive ahead of Friday’s non farm payrolls.
o Economists expect ~60,000 new jobs in February, following January’s strong report.
• Other key reports:
o ISM Manufacturing PMI
o ISM Services PMI
o January retail sales
Corporate Earnings
• Target reports Tuesday before the market opens.
• Broadcom reports Wednesday after the close.
International Data
• China: New PMI data due Tuesday evening.
• Australia: Q4 2025 GDP also arrives Tuesday.
• Europe: CPI, PPI, retail sales, and minutes from the most recent central bank meeting.
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