Weekly Wrap Up April 21, 2026
Recapping Last Week
• Markets: U.S. equities rallied for a third consecutive week as Middle East tensions eased; risk appetite surged Friday.
• Geopolitics & Energy: Iran confirmed the Strait of Hormuz remained open during the ceasefire, triggering a sharp drop in oil prices (down $10+ per barrel Friday), easing global inflation fears.
• Equity Performance:
• S&P 500 +4.5% and Nasdaq-100 +6% on the week
• Since March 31 lows: S&P 500 +13%, Nasdaq-100 +17%
• Small caps outperformed: Russell 2000 +6%, Nasdaq Composite +7%
• Sector Trends: Growth and travel led gains; rate-sensitive sectors lagged, particularly housing.
• Housing & Small Business:
• Existing home sales fell to 3.98M; NAHB index at 34 (weak builder sentiment)
• Small business optimism slipped to 95.8, though forward-looking indicators are less negative
• Inflation & Growth Data:
• PPI rose 0.5% m/m (4.0% y/y), heavily influenced by energy prices
• Manufacturing data mixed: weak Empire index, stronger Philly Fed
• Industrial production dipped; labor market stayed firm with jobless claims at 207K
• U.S. Outlook: Economy appears stable, boosted by Friday’s risk rally; volatility likely persists given unresolved Iran risks.
• Global Growth: Lower energy prices improve odds that global growth reaches the IMF’s 3% base case (vs. 2% if disruptions persisted).
• International Highlights:
• Europe: Industrial production positive; ECB flags downside growth and upside inflation risks
• UK: GDP +0.5%
• Australia: Unemployment steady at 4.3%
• China: GDP 5%, industrial production 5.7%; weak exports (+2.5%) but strong imports (+27.8%) signal domestic resilience
• Bottom Line: Falling energy prices and easing geopolitical tensions support a constructive near-term outlook, assuming inflation expectations remain contained.
The Week Ahead
• Market Focus: Investors are testing whether the recent relief rally can hold as attention shifts back to hard economic data amid renewed uncertainty.
• Key U.S. Data: This week features U.S. retail sales, PMIs, jobless claims, core PCE, and consumer spending/income data, plus a heavy earnings calendar.
• Consumer Health: Revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment will shed light on the still-fragile U.S. consumer.
• Central Banks: Fed politics come into focus Tuesday as Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s Fed chair nominee, testifies before the Senate; markets will scrutinize his views on rate policy.
• Inflation & Growth: Continued easing in inflation and resilient growth are critical to sustaining a soft-landing narrative.
• Energy Markets: Global energy prices and supply remain paramount; any renewed spike would dominate market dynamics.
• Europe & UK:
• Europe: Retail sales and consumer confidence midweek
• UK: Claimant count, unemployment rate, CPI, and PMIs all due
• Commodities: U.S. crude oil inventories on Wednesday carry heightened importance.
• Earnings Watch: Notable reports from Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, AT&T, Tesla, and several airlines.
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