In this video we take a look at how to calculate probabilities for games that use die roll successes (using the game Summoner Wars). Find the original video here: • Game Design & Analysis - Balance and Proba...
ERRATUM
2:51 There is a typo here as the formula should read (2/6*4/6)+(4/6*2/6)+(4/6*4/6) = 0.89. As I explained in the video, there is no point in counting the chance that we get no success so the (2/6*2/6) should be omitted. Otherwise the result will be 1 given that we have counted all possible outcomes.