Norma a Pacific Hurricane Threat - October 18, 2023
Tropical Storm Norma formed earlier today in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and is already looking impressive on satellite imagery. The storm is expected to intensify substantially and become a hurricane late this week or at the weekend. With the National Hurricane Center forecasting a borderline Category 3 peak, the threat is building for the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and the western coast of mainland Mexico.
Tropical Depression 16W formed late yesterday and is likely to become another tropical storm in the Gulf of Tonkin, as it sideswipes the western coast of Hainan, China. The storm is heavily sheared but producing large amounts of convection, with high rainfall which could produce up to 24 inches, although this is likely to be at sea. Along the coast of northern Vietnam, rainfall totals are expected to reach 16 inches (400mm) in some areas.
Elsewhere, other areas of interest are expected to develop in the Arabian Sea and the South Pacific, with both systems likely to reach hurricane strength. The Arabian Sea storm could impact the coast of Oman early next week as a strong cyclone, whilst the South Pacific system could become a rare hurricane strength storm in October for the basin, and a major threat to Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands.
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